johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #143355
- Ignore johnpaulca |
4/26/2018 11:51:38 AM
FB....did not disappoint, America is great again. Some heavyweights will declare today, volume has been very thin meaning bots are in control of this market....glty
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #143356
- Ignore mahkoh |
4/26/2018 3:06:58 PM
mahkoh
968 posts
msg #143304 4/23/2018 3:33:36 PM
AAXN (42.84) big call buying on the June 45 strike.
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Was near 45 premarket, probably sentiment from IRBT upping guidance. Guess I should have taken it..
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #143357
- Ignore gmg733 |
4/26/2018 3:38:42 PM
Bartune. Not yet. I've been busy today but that booger really shot up today. I will adjust it tomorrow. I might roll it out and tigthen up the strikes or I may roll into a straddle. I don't like rolling out due to earnings, nonetheless it is what it is when defending a trade.
The reason I did this trade is IV was elevated and I thought I could sneak in under the earnings wire here for a quick one. Nope. Gonna make me manage it. I got sideways on HD last year and managed it for a few months and managed a scratch. I love options!
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #143358
- Ignore gmg733 |
4/26/2018 3:39:16 PM
Low volume rally in indices today. Humm!
Probably runs into month end and then kaput!
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #143359
- Ignore gmg733 |
4/26/2018 3:48:27 PM
Bartune, I just rolled up my put to the 185 put (straddle) and collected 2.30 for a total credit in the trade of 4.08. I moved my profit stop to 4.00 even.
Since we are within 15 days you can expect some whipping around due to gamma. And I don't expect this to go to expiration, but at expiration if between 181 and 189 then we scratched. I'll see how it behaves the next few days, I may roll it out in time to collect more premium.
I'll reiterate this is not normally how I'd trade this. But with IV so high before earnings I took a shot.
Normal trade, about 45-60 DTE, profit stop between 20-40% depending on strategy, high IV. If a strike is tested, roll untested side up/down. Close with 21 DTE if profitable, if not roll trade out to next month even if it has earnings.
If you are following this trade this is a good lesson on how to manage a trade that has gone against you. If the markets cooperate we'll be able to scratch or make a little money.
I've been managing a bad XRT trade now for 3 months, but I've almost broke even and I've been wrong the whole time. :)
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #143360
- Ignore mahkoh |
4/26/2018 3:58:12 PM
Sold TSM Oct 36 put (1.95). Joining someone that placed a 600 K bet that it will still be above that price by the time the option expires.
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #143361
- Ignore gmg733 |
4/26/2018 3:58:13 PM
4/19/2018 10:52:45 AM
I've been busy lately, so sorry for not posting updates or new trades.
STO May11 (weekly) HD 170 Put and 185 Call for 1.80 per one lot
manage at 40% max profit or manage accordingly
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Trade Adjustment Update: BTC May 11 HD 170 Put and STO May 11 Put for 2.30 per one lot.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #143362
- Ignore BarTune1 |
4/26/2018 5:38:24 PM
Thanks for the update Greg ... I looked at a couple of options (no pun intended) for rolling out although they didn't look all that attractive ... likely due to a collapse in IV after the "news" was out ... I'm not a novice at options but most of my experience has been with directional strategies or selling calls or puts directionally to capture premium.
I don't have as much experience on the vol trades which you seem to specialize in so I find your posts interesting. Calendar spreads interest me but the key is knowing what trade to take ... not the mechanics underlying them.
I just got a look at your post now but will probably try to follow along tomorrow morning. I think HD may end up pulling back making the original trade ok. However, obviously the risk/reward ratio here bad if the price moves up. Not taking action at this point is basically the same as making a directional bet!
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #143363
- Ignore gmg733 |
4/26/2018 6:23:30 PM
Your delta in the trade is what tells you how directional you are in the trade. I'm now at -10 delta so I'm slightly short. If it does pull back you may sit still or roll that put up to the 30 delta or something effectively narrowing your strangle and getting more neutral on your delta. I think mine was at .23 which is giving me no help. So I rolled up. I should have waited till the morning since vol will be slightly higher on the open, but oh well.
Directional trades are 50/50 shots. I swing trade futures for that. Just me.
Vol trading is built on the premise that volatility is overstated and 90 plus percent of the time it is. That is my edge in options trading. So when vol pops up on something I wanna be a seller.
2017 was tough on options vol traders because the moves to the upside were outside of the expected range. I was delta neutral most of the year and did fine. Those who were delta short to hedge their short vega didn't have great years last year. 2015 was a monster year though that paid for whatever misgivings 2017 dealt them.
Its give and take for sure. For what it is worth I haven't had to adjust an options trade in over a month. about 1 out of 10 trades I usually have to manage. Not a big deal as long as the P/L cooperates. There are times when I'll give up but that is not very often. I think I did twice last year.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #143366
- Ignore BarTune1 |
4/27/2018 9:38:17 AM
Rolled out the HD put at 2.50 .... slightly better pricing ...
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