gmg733
788 posts
msg #143367
- Ignore gmg733 |
4/27/2018 9:46:10 AM
yeah its down today. I was gonna send you a note and saying you might hang tight if you wanted too. But this could simply be a balance day and more upside.
Once again, no one knows anything. :)
I learned something new today. XLY vol was pumped up. What I didn't realize is how much XLY is made up of AMZN, 20%. So while it is up over a dollar today, vol is coming in due to AMZN earnings. A little $$$ back in my pocket on a trade that has gone the wrong way on me. I thought it was XRT. Oh well.
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #143368
- Ignore gmg733
modified |
4/27/2018 10:42:01 AM
Something to think about. Both AMZN and FB crush earnings and the market is down. There might be some upside into month end, but this does not look good for the market.
This market is reminding me of 2007
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #143369
- Ignore BarTune1 |
4/27/2018 11:07:31 AM
Well, I'm way overweight to the short side currently ... so that would help.
Being so short has been a tough battle the last couple years ...
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #143371
- Ignore gmg733 |
4/27/2018 1:26:36 PM
yeah going delta neutral saved my bacon. But I started getting delta short towards the end of 2017 and I was flat for months because the vol would come in and essentially offset the loss on the deltas.
If I would have stayed delta neutral I would have been up more. But vol being back is nice. My profits are almost equal to last years already simply because vol is up.
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #143372
- Ignore gmg733
modified |
4/27/2018 2:30:22 PM
Looks like weekend vol is coming out today. I'll start rolling on Monday my positions that are 21 days DTE that are not profitable or are underwater.
I'll determine what I'm going to do with HD on Monday Bartune. I may roll it out.
Have a good weekend all.
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #143373
- Ignore gmg733 |
4/27/2018 2:32:43 PM
IV in XLY came in big today. Wow! I was selling strangles with extremely high IV and it is down about 60% now. I needed the help. :)
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #143375
- Ignore johnpaulca |
4/27/2018 3:56:02 PM
SPY....daily buy signal triggered today.
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #143407
- Ignore gmg733 |
5/1/2018 1:33:53 PM
Bartune
Still holding the HD trade. I'm only 1.22 away from break even and I have 40 theta per day. Normally I would have rolled this out already but the original idea of this trade was to be in and out before earnings. I think we get some two sided movement and we scratch this one. I normally don't trade weeklys either. This is what I get from steering from the script. LOL
My XLY positions were going against me and now I'm up 22%. Probably close those. Only two positions I have not rolled are HD and XLY.
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #143408
- Ignore gmg733 |
5/1/2018 1:58:06 PM
Would like to see vol a little higher. Ugh!
STO Jun15 EWW 48 Put and 53 Call for 1.21 per one lot
STO June15 SBUX 55 Put and 60 Call for 1.05 per one lot
I'll manage the EWW at 40% max profit and the SBUX at 30% max profit. Or manage each trade accordingly.
Full Disclosure: I just got off anesthesia about two hours ago. :)
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #143409
- Ignore gmg733 |
5/1/2018 2:05:30 PM
Oldie but a goodie filter.
The only one that has a positive ROC is SH.
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